Given the recurrent nature of climate-driven humanitarian crises in Ethiopia, Government and partners have agreed that a significant shift in approach is required.
This Humanitarian and Disaster Resilience Plan(HDRP) represents a first step towards the development of a multiyear planning framework that will seek to: increase the quality and predictable delivery of required multi sectoral humanitarian response; mitigate future needs in areas that experience recurrent climate induced shock; support the strengthening of national service provision to address chronic and acute needs; and, the recovery of communities affected by drought and conflict.
The Government and partners are working to establish an overarching vision and strategy for resilience and recovery in many of the recurrently drought-prone areas.
Whilst this document focuses primarily on immediate response requirements for 2018, it also lays out the basis for a three-pillared model that will allow for further planning and development investments, in line with a disaster risk management approach.
Pillar 1 concerns prevention and mitigation: Some limited activities in this regard are already reflected here, particularly those that humanitarian partners believe to be immediately critical in the context of the required humanitarian response in 2018 – for support via humanitarian or development funding used flexibly. The need for broader, large-scale resilience-type investments are described in many of the sector chapters, though not yet presented in detail.
Pillar 2 concerns preparedness and response. Largely relief commodities and partners presence in hot-spot areas.
Pillar 3 concerns National System Strengthening and Recovery:
Practically all humanitarian assistance in Ethiopia is delivered with or through national systems at point of delivery; some activities to increase the capacity of these systems within Line Ministries at Federal and local levels (particularly that enable the overall response) are included here, along with some limited, sector-specific recovery activities. As with Pillar 1, major recovery investments are not yet presented in detail, though some early recovery activities are incorporated.
Ethiopia is entering a fourth year of exceptional drought emergency. In 2017, severe drought conditions continued in lowland, mostly pastoral areas, rendering hundreds of thousands destitute and displaced. The southern autumn rains again underperformed, though not at the level of ‘drought’, meaning that levels of food insecurity and acute malnutrition in the lowlands remain high. Meteorologists, including the National Meteorological Agency (NMA), are predicting that the current La Nina phenomenon may lead to reduced performance of spring rains, particularly over southern and eastern lowland areas.
The well-managed, Government-led, lifesaving response will need to be sustained across southern and eastern parts of the country through much of 2018. Across highland areas there was a generally strong meher harvest, with some pockets of poor performance. Disease outbreaks are further expected to continue in 2018.
Additional humanitarian needs have arisen due to conflict, with 857,000 Ethiopians displaced over the past year around the border areas of Oromia and Somali Regions. Many of those displaced over the course of 2017 are likely to require continuing relief assistance and recovery support in 2018.
Indicative modelling and projections show that humanitarian needs and financial requirements are likely to remain similarly high for the following two years (2019-2020), though could be mitigated through the introduction of some of the shifts in strategic and operational approach described here.