ReliefWeb

The Pakistan Food Security Bulletin is produced by the Vulnerability Analysis and Mapping (VAM) Unit of the World Food Programme as a contribution to periodic food security monitoring in the country.

Highlights

• Total national wheat crop production for 2015‐16 was reported at 25.6 million MT, slightly higher than the 2014‐15 level of 25.1 million MT, showing a positive growth of 2.18 percent.

• Production of rice, the second main staple crop of Pakistan, has been estimated at 6.9 million MT (milled basis), reflecting a lower production by 1.47 percent compared to the 7.0 million MT of 2014‐15.

• During the reporting period, staple food prices slightly increased, while the prices of all non‐cereal food commodities significantly decreased, except cooking oil that negligibly increased. The fuel prices slightly increased for both Super Petrol and HSD from June 2016.

• Term‐of‐Trade (ToT) decreased by 2.8 percent from June 2016 due to increased wheat flour price.

• Continued progress has been noted in the return of displaced populations in FATA, with some 66,400 families have returned to their areas of origin during the reporting period, reaching a total of 227,000 families during the period of March 2015‐December 2016. However, 76,507 families are still remained in displacement, whereas the Government has announced an extension to compete the return by December 2017.

Situation Overview

In 2015‐16, wheat (main staple) harvest in Pakistan stood at 25.61 million MT, slightly higher than the 2014‐15 level of 25.1 million MT, showing a positive growth of 2.18 percent. While for production of rice, the second main staple crop of Pakistan, has been estimated at 6.92 million MT (milled basis), slightly less than the previous year’s production of 7.0 million MT by 1.47 percent.

Currently, 22 percent of the total population of Pakistan (or 41.43 million people) are reported to be undernourished, mainly attributed to limited economic access to food which remains the main constraint of household food security. According to FAO’s recent report, the proportion of undernourished people in Pakistan has decreased by 13 percent in 2014‐16 compared to 1990‐92 levels4 . The latest re‐ estimation by the Ministry of Planning, Development and Reform indicates that 30 percent of population would be considered poor based on new Pakistan’s poverty line and Household Integrated Economic Survey (2013‐14).

Over the past six months, stable fuel and food prices, with slight fluctuations and few exceptional increases, have somewhat eased the hardships of the highly vulnerable population. With improvement in the law and order situation across the country, a significant number of displaced populations have been returning to FATA, with some 227,000 families reported to have returned as of December 2016.
Among them, 66,4006 families returned during the second half of 2016; however, 76,5007 families are still in displacement.

In addition, the coastal areas of Balochistan and western parts of Sindh, the Potohar plateau (i.e. Islamabad and its surrounding areas such as Rawat, Gujar Khan, Taxila, Attock and Rawalpindi) that solely rely on rain‐fed agriculture, have been mostly affected by slow crop growth due to unusual high temperatures and a dry spell during the peak wheat‐sowing months in October ‐ November 2016, which is forecasted to yield less than 50 percent of the normal level of wheat output. This would raise vulnerabilities of the small holders and poor households until the second crop (Kharif) harvest in 2017.