Crisis (IPC Phase 3) expected in parts of Oromia, SNNPR, and southern pastoral areas
Meher harvests starting in October are significantly reducing the number of people in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse. However, poor Kiremt rainfall in eastern and central Oromia and SNNPR, low livestock holdings in pastoral southern Afar and Shinile, and expected poor performance of October to December rainfall in southern pastoral areas are likely to lead to above-average food assistance needs in 2016/17.
Below-average Kiremt rainfall and dry spells in the lowlands of central and eastern Oromia and the Rift Valley in SNNPR is likely to lead to below-average Meher harvests. The expected below-average production, coupled with low income from agricultural labor, is likely to drive poor households into Crisis (IPC Phase 3) between February to May 2017 in these areas.
In southern pastoral areas, below-average October to December rainfall is likely to lead to a substantial deterioration of pasture and water resources. Long-distance migration of livestock and below-average food and income from livestock products will limit houeholds’ food access. Parts of southern SNNPR and Somali Region will be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) during the pastoral lean season in February and March 2017.
Overall Meher production is expected to be near to slightly below average. Performance of Kiremt seasonal rainfall was near or above-average in many areas, although waterlogging reduced yields in some localized areas. Expected near-average harvests will support normal food access in many western and northwestern areas of the country, which will be face Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity between October 2016 and May 2017.