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National Disaster Risk Management Commission (NDRMC), Early Warning and Response Directorate: Early Warning and Response Analysis - April 2016

Govt. Ethiopia
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 The expected heavy falls in some areas of southern half of the country would cause flash flood particularly over flood prone areas, thus, the concerned personnel should undertake appropriate measures ahead of time in order to minimize the effect of flood hazard in the areas.

 The anticipated normal rainfall over Oromiya (East and West Wellega, Jima, Ilu Aba Bora, West and North Shewa, Addis Ababa, West and East Harargie, Arsi, Bale, Borena and Guji), Gambela, Amhara(North and South Wollo, North Shewa, East and West Gojam, a few areas of North and South Gonder), Afar (Zone 3, 4 and 5), Tigray (Central, Southern and Eastern Tigray including a few areas of Western Tigray) and SNNPR(Hadiya, Guragie, Kefa, Maji, Wolayita, Sidama, South Omo and Segen peoples) would favour season's agricultural activities particularly for long cycle crops. Therefore, farmers are advised to take appropriate measures in order to make use of the expected moisture efficiently.

 On the other hand due to the erratic nature of Belg rainfall extended dry spell is possible in some lowland areas of Belg rain benefiting areas. Thus, attention should be given in areas where deficient rain is expected in order to minimize the effect of water stress.

 Even though an improvement of moisture condition has been observed in some localities, particularly as of the third dekade of February 2016, still there is a sever water shortage in some lowland areas due to the prolonged deficient rainfall condition observed during the previous successive dekades. As a result livestock migration is a normal phenomenon over some parts of the country. Therefore the concerned personnel should give proper attention based on the existing condition of deficient areas like southern half of Afar, northern Somali, eastern and central Oromiya.

 Flood is likely to happen in flood-prone areas with high probability in the southern and southeastern parts. Additionally, flash flood is anticipated in the north-eastern, central and eastern parts of the country. Taking into consideration the presence of El Nino effect with anticipated above-normal rains in the belg season, the risk of flash and river flood is high

 The Severe Acute Malnutrition (SAM) caseload was 25,196 in January 2016 with a reporting rate of 83.3 per cent from 12,771 OTP sites across the country. The cure rate reported was 93.2%, default rate remained 1.3%, and death rate remained 0.3%. The non-responders remained 0.6% while the medical transfers were 0.7 per cent.

 NDRMC has reached 258,136 MAM children and women in priority-2 woredas of the country.

 The screening results in Afar & Somali regions were not received on time resulting delayed dispatch of CSB in both regions in February. NDRMC/FMOH have collaborated to expedite the reporting of screening information to avoid future delays.

 Ongoing emergency food assistance and PSNP transfer contributed for stable market price trend in most common staple cereals (maize and sorghum) in the recent months. However, market price are much higher compared to last year.