The evolving El Niño, which currently has a probability of occurrence at above 90% and is likely to be the worst in 30 years, will exacerbate the current food and nutrition security situation. Parts of Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, Somalia and Kenya are expected to experience severe flooding while other parts of the region will experience drought conditions.
Prolonged severe flooding may lead to outbreaks of Rift Valley Fever, especially in coastal areas of Somalia, Kenya and Tanzania; and other tropical water-borne diseases. There are recently reported cases of cholera outbreak in the region. Notable areas include major counties of Kenya, Kasese District in Uganda, South Sudan internally displaced persons’ sites and the Burundi refugees in Nyarugusi and Kigoma Districts transit centres. Other expected impacts include infrastructure damages, cutting off access to communities, crop damages in the field and post-harvest losses.
Urgent vaccination of livestock, water and sanitation interventions within flood-prone areas of the region is highly recommended. Preparedness measures and early action is required to mitigate the impacts of both the drier than normal conditions and flooding in the affected areas.