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Syria: Drought - 2021-2024

Statut
En cours
Pays
Syrie
Types de catastrophes
Sécheresse

Since autumn 2020, unseasonably low levels of rainfall across the eastern region of the Mediterranean Basin, have contributed to drought conditions in Syria and Iraq. Given the country's semi-arid climate, the annual water balance is determined by precipitation patterns between October and April and pronounced seasonal rainfall, with deficits accumulated enduring for the remainder of the year. In Syria, poor precipitation during the 2020/2021 winter season, as well as the months critical for crop development (January-April), have negatively impacted several governorates in the northeast, with Al-Hasakeh – typically the breadbasket of the country – particularly badly affected ... Syria currently ranks seventh on a global risk index of 191 countries most at risk of a humanitarian or natural disaster event that could overwhelm response capacity, in part due to the ongoing crisis which hinders adequate preparedness measures. With temperatures in the Mediterranean basin predicted to increase in the coming years, and water scarcity expected to persist, extreme climatic events such as drought are likely to become more frequent and intense. Of the nine countries rated as ‘very high risk’, Syria is the third highest at risk of drought. (OCHA, 27 Jun 2021)

Since April/May 2021, the humanitarian situation in northeastern Aleppo as well as Deir-ez-Zor, Al-Hasakeh and Ar-Raqqa Governorates has deteriorated further due to significantly reduced water availability and access, as a result of the following climatic and man-made factors[...]The overall deterioration in people’s living standards is aggravating multiple, pre-existing protection needs and risks, threatening social cohesion and encouraging more widespread adoption of harmful coping mechanisms, including amongst an estimated 289,000 IDPs (internally displaced people) living in ‘last resort sites’ in NES. (OCHA, 9 Sep 2021)

The number of people that are food insecure and in acute need of humanitarian assistance increased by 400,000 during the first half of 2021 bringing the total number to 12.8 million people, an increase of more than 60% compared to 2021. According to the FAO, Syrian farmers face challenges preparing for the upcoming planting season due to lack of liquidity and access to credit, while prices of inputs such as fertilizers and fuel are increasing. Furthermore, access to seeds will likely be difficult and seed quality poor with low germination rates due to the drastically reduced 2020/2021 harvest. This impacts in particular small-scale farmers that lack alternative livelihoods income sources and continue to cultivate their lands. (IFRC, 20 Oct 2021)

Already weakened by 10 years of conflict, the economy suffered further setbacks from the COVID-19 pandemic and spill-over effects from the economic crisis in Lebanon, long a lifeline of the Syrian economy. High inflation rates, weakening currency and shortages of basic products, including fuel, prevail. International sanctions have generally affected livelihoods of millions of Syrians, directly or indirectly. According to the World Food Programme (WFP), more than 12.4 million people (60 percent of the population) were food insecure in 2020, 5.4 million more than in 2019. The food security situation has continued to worsen in 2021. Insufficient and poorly distributed rainfall in the 2020/21 agricultural season, together with several heatwaves, the high cost of inputs, limited availability of irrigation water and high cost of fuel for pumping, resulted in a contraction of the harvestable cereal area. (FAO, 17 Dec 2021)

The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) seasonal outlook for Syria indicates that a severe and long-term drought is affecting Syria. Water deficits have been exacerbated by unusual dry conditions during the wet season, but also by abnormally high air temperatures, which are forecast to continue into the July–September hot and dry season. The multi-year drought and the scarcity and high cost of water, food, and energy are mutually reinforcing and are underpinning Syria’s food security crisis. Humanitarian partners are working to update the water response plan of September 2021. (ECHO, 18 Jul 2022)

Severe drought is reported in many regions after successive months of failed rainfall. During the wet period11 from October 2021 to May 2022, only March recorded normal to above-normal precipitation. Water deficits have been exacerbated due to drier than average conditions in the 2020/21 and 2021/22 wet seasons, but also by increasing evaporative demand associated with above-normal air temperatures during the July-September hot and dry season. According to Vegetation Health Index (VHI) products, the vegetation conditions have deteriorated since April 2022 and there was an intensification of drought in most of Syria. The situation in the first week of October 2022 was worse than during the same period of 2021 and VHI high-risk drought classes three and four prevail in large areas of the country. [...] The outlook for the November 2022-January 2023 period suggests an increased probability of below-normal precipitation and above-normal temperatures. While forecast uncertainty increases with lead time, i.e. the length of time between the issuance of forecasts and the occurrence of the predicted phenomena, there are consistent signals of below-average precipitation in winter 2022/23. (OCHA, 22 Dec 2022)

After more than ten years of conflict in Syria, access to water has become one of the most prominent humanitarian challenges, which is exacerbated by climate change. According to SARC's severity scale updated in June 2023, all ofAl-Sweida's districts are ranked at levels 3 to 5, meaning they are facing a major, severe, or critical problem in water needs. The Al-Sweida governorate faced during this period a sharp decline in water availability, the causes of which appear to be the intertwining of many factors: Loss of the main source of drinking water since 2012 which used to provide 15,000 cubic meters of water daily (half the city's population needs), the increase of the population between 2010 and 2022 by 75% increasing the demand on water and pressure on resources, the decrease in the number of hours of electrical supply from 24 hours/day to 4 hours/day negatively affecting the pumps and water pumping, and the decrease in the maintenance and technical level of logistical operating equipment [...] Climate change has reduced pasture areas at an alarming pace due to the effects of high temperatures. Heat and lack of rain, in addition to the devastating impact of the long-term conflict in the region, made many pumping stations out of commission or insecure in terms of access thus out of service. The lack of management of vital natural resources may lead to an environmental disaster, perhaps the most prominent of which is the Cholera outbreak of 2022. In the past weeks, reports indicate an increase of hepatitis A cases in Al-Sweida, governorate, in light of emerging diseases linked to usage of unsafe water and food. The entire area of the governorate is threatened by water shortage, which is reflected in its impact on the entire population who rely mostly on rain-fed agriculture. The deterioration of this produce negatively affects the food security situation. Water shortage is also exacerbated by the decline in purchasing power and the increase in financial burdens as a result of the unavailability of drinking water. (IFRC, 25 Aug 2023)