Afghanistan has been experiencing below-normal rainfall since October 2020. Such conditions are expected to continue through the first half of 2021 in the country according to forecasters. The conditions have affected the winter season snow accumulation, which is critical for water access during the spring and summer agricultural seasons. It is anticipated that the situation will have an impact on both rain-fed and irrigated agriculture/livestock, as well as on the availability of water for drinking, washing, and sanitation. Mid-March through to the end of July will likely be the peak period during which drought impacts on crops and livestock (agricultural drought) would manifest. The wheat production deficit is expected to be 16 to 27 per cent this year and as a result, requiring increased top-up from international suppliers. Such drivers would further affect communities already suffering from the ongoing economic crises exacerbated by the secondary effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, including high prices of basic commodities, conflict, and food insecurity.
The ongoing food insecurity situation is very much worse than the previous years. According to the IPC report, from November 2019 to March 2020, 2,695,000 people were in IPC phase 4 and 8,591,000 people were in IPC phase 3. Based on the same IPC report (produced recently by Food Security Cluster and Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation, and Livestock), between November 2020 and March 2021 – a period that corresponds to the lean season –around 13.15 million people (42% of the total population) have been experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above), out of which nearly 4.3 million people are in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and an estimated 8.85 million people are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). Moreover, only five provinces of the country were in IPC phase 4 in the first quarter of 2020, but by March 2021, 10 provinces of the country are classified in IPC phase 4. (IFRC, 19 Mar 2021)